登陆台风Winnie(1997)的数值模拟研究Ⅰ:结果检验和云系的模拟   总被引：22，自引：8，他引：22  

朱佩君  陈敏  陶祖钰  王洪庆  石步鸠 《气象学报》2002,60(5):553-559

用非静力平衡的中尺度模式MM5 (V2 )对 1997年 11号台风Winnie在登陆后演变为温带气旋的过程进行了48h模拟。结果表明 :MM 5不仅比较好地模拟出台风在陆地上的移动路径及其产生的降水 ,而且成功地模拟出了台风登陆后次中心的产生。利用模拟大气中的水物质 (云水、雨水、冰晶、雪水和霰 )模拟了台风云图 ,很好地展示了在卫星实际观测的红外云图上 ,Winnie台风在登陆后其云系的结构从热带气旋的螺旋结构到温带气旋的锋面云系结构的转变过程。因此对Winnie台风的数值模拟可以作为深入研究台风登陆后从热带气旋演变为温带气旋的变性过程的基础。  相似文献   

Move a Tropical Cyclone with 4D-Var and Vortex Dynamical Initialization in WRF Model     

王挺  彭跃华  张邦林  梁卓轩  施伟来 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2021,27(3):191-200

Previous studies showed that 4 D-Var technique used for data assimilation could be modified for weather control. This study demonstrates the ability of 4 D-Var to influence the future path of a tropical cyclone by calculating perturbations in WRF simulation. Given the background error covariance matrix, the initial field is improved by the vortex dynamic initialization technique. Our results show that 4 D-Var can be applied to control the trajectory of simulated tropical cyclones by producing "optimal" perturbations. In the numerical simulation experiment of Typhoon Mitag in 2019, after this kind of weather control similar to data assimilation, the tropical cyclone moved obviously,and the damaging wind over the coastline weakened. The prediction results after the initial field modified by 4 D-Var have a great change, and the position of the tropical cyclone moved about 0.5° southeastward after assimilation,which misses the southeast coast of China. Moreover, the damaging wind is also weakened. Since the 4 D-Var is premised on the assumption that the model is perfect and does not consider the model error, then the research plan to consider model error and introduce new methods is discussed in the paper.  相似文献   

震前重力扰动与台风引起的重力扰动主频率特征分析     

王新胜  韩宇飞  徐伟民 《地震》2016,36(4):196-204

基于中国大陆构造环境监测网络的连续重力观测数据, 对于田M_S7.3地震、 鲁甸M_S6.5地震、 景谷M_S6.6地震和皮山M_S6.5地震前几天的重力扰动信号主频率特征及2014年台风“威马逊”、 “麦德姆”和“黄蜂”引起的重力扰动主频率特征进行了研究。 结果表明: 震前重力扰动信号和台风引起的重力扰动信号频率范围很接近, 对应周期为4~7 s, 单从频率大小无法对两者进行区分; 在不受台风影响的情况下, 不同台站震前重力扰动信号主频率极差和标准差均小于0.02 Hz, 而台风引起的不同台站重力扰动信号主频率极差和标准差均大于0.02 Hz; 通过主频率极差和标准差这两个指标可以很好地将震前重力扰动与台风引起的重力扰动进行有效区分, 这将大大推进连续重力观测在强震短临监测中的应用, 为构建地震预报定量指标体系提供相关依据。  相似文献   

Modelling the impact of sea-level rise on urban flood probability in SE China     

James Andrew Griffiths  Fangfang Zhu  Faith Ka Shun Chan  David Laurence Higgitt 《地学前缘(英文版)》2019,10(2):363-372

Urban drainage systems in coastal cities in SE China are characterized by often complex canal and sluicegate systems that are designed to safely drain pluvial flooding whilst preventing tidal inundation.However, the risk of coastal flooding in the region is expected to increase over the next 50-100 years, as urban areas continue to expand and sea-levels are expected to rise. To assess the impact of projected sealevel rise on this type of urban drainage system, a one-dimensional model and decision support tool was developed. The model indicated that although sea-level rise represents a significant challenge, flood probability will continue to be most influenced by rainfall. Events that are significant enough to cause flooding will most likely be minimally impacted by changes to the tidal frame. However, it was found that a sea-level rise of up to 1.2 m by 2010 would result in increased drainage times and higher volumes of over-topping when flooding occurs.  相似文献   

1513号“苏迪罗”台风残涡强降水分布特征研究     

沈安云  唐晓东  吴海英  沈阳  熊世为 《气象科学》2018,38(4):453-463

运用自动站6 h降水资料和NCEP/NCAR的0. 25°×0. 25°再分析数据,着重分析了1513号台风"苏迪罗"及其残涡影响江苏期间强降水落区的分布特征,以及强降水落区与风场、涡散度、水汽通量散度等要素的对应关系。分析结果表明:强降水多分布在台风低层环流中心东北侧,风场围绕环流中心非对称分布造成辐合和正涡度在此处集中,进一步导致水汽在同一地区辐合,动力条件和水汽条件在同一地区叠加是强降水区位于环流中心东北侧的直接原因。单一等压面上的负散度和正涡度均可以在一定程度上指示出强降水站点位置,不同层次涡散度场的涵盖范围有所不同,三层算术平均后的涡散度较单一层次的指示性更为准确。"苏迪罗"登陆后在北上过程中接近中高纬西风带系统,环境风垂直切变逐渐增强且方向稳定,强降水落区基本位于850 h Pa至200 hPa间切变矢量的顺切变左侧,这一特征对判断登陆台风强降水落区具有一定的指导意义。  相似文献   

远距离台风影响陕北突发性暴雨成因分析   总被引：27，自引：1，他引：27       下载免费PDF全文

井喜 贺文彬毕旭  艾丽华 《应用气象学报》2005,16(5):655-662

该文对2002年7月4～5日发生在陕西子长县受远距离台风影响而产生的突发性暴雨进行了诊断分析。结果表明:子长特大暴雨是由于β-中尺度强对流云团在子长重复出现而产生的。中低纬度系统的相互作用形成了有利于中尺度强对流云团在子长生成、发展和重复出现的水汽条件、不稳定条件、动力条件和天气尺度环流背景。湿位涡诊断分析表明:当台风向西北方向行进时, (1)暴雨区对流层低层MPV1负值发展的同时伴随对流高层MPV1正值的发展, 为对流层低层不稳定能量的充分积累创造了条件;(2)暴雨区形成有利于中尺度强对流云团生成发展的湿位涡正压项、斜压项垂直结构配置;(3)850 hPa等压面上MP V2等值线密集区和MPV1=-2 PVU中尺度强对流不稳定核心区形成耦合, 耦合区对下游中尺度强对流云团发生发展指示意义明显。当台风向北偏东方向行进时, 暴雨区对流层低层和高层形成双层不稳定;850 hPaMPV2等值线密集区东移, 暴雨区MPV2正值发展, 积累的对流不稳定能量在子长形成集中猛烈释放。  相似文献   

近年影响桂林的台风暴雨动力热力特征及日本数值预报产品检验   总被引：11，自引：1，他引：11  

薛荣康 《广西气象》2005,26(2):9-13

对近年造成桂林台风暴雨的大中尺度环流背景形势作了分析，着重对比分析了尤特和黄蜂台风暴雨的热力、动力特征，对比结果表明：高空槽云系与台风倒槽云系叠加造成的暴雨远比单纯的台风环流造成的暴雨严重，说明中低纬天气系统的相互作用能造成暴雨的增幅。同时检验了日本数值预报产品对台风暴雨预报能力，结果表明：日本数值预报产品对台风环流本身造成暴雨有较好预报能力。  相似文献   

West North Pacific typhoon track patterns and their potential connection to Tibetan Plateau snow cover   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Lian Xie  Tingzhuang Yan 《Natural Hazards》2007,42(2):317-333

The spatial characteristics and temporal variability of the West North Pacific (WNP) typhoon tracks are studied by analyzing the spatial pattern and temporal variability of the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of the WNP typhoon track density function (TTDF) from 1945 to 2004. The results show that WNP typhoon tracks exhibit three principal EOF Modes. The first EOF Mode represents the contrasting “active” versus “inactive” typhoons defined by the overall frequency and life span of the typhoons that develop in the WNP basin. The second EOF shows a north–south dipole Mode in the TTDF depicting a seesaw pattern in typhoon frequency between Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia. The third EOF describes an east–west dipole Mode in TTDF depicting a zonal seesaw pattern between typhoons that tend to make landfalls in East Asia and typhoons that tend to stay away from the East Asia landmasses. Further analysis of the EOF time series of the WNP TTDF indicates that an important climatic factor associated with the WNP typhoon activity is the snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), which is also correlated with the East Asia summer monsoon (EASM). Thus, a mechanism linking the TP snow cover and the WNP typhoon activity is the response of the EASM in the WNP region to the TP snow cover, and the subsequent effect of EASM on the development and steering of the WNP typhoons.  相似文献   

浙江省"2004·14"号台风暴潮综合分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

闵惠学  邵学强  陈立辉  刘艳伟 《水文》2006,26(1):83-86

“2004·14”号台风是1956年以来登陆我国大陆最强的一次台风,影响范围广、强度强、降雨量大,给浙江省造成了严重灾害。本文对本次强台风特点、形成的暴雨洪水等做了较系统的分析,并与历史强台风进行了比较,对水利工程效益进行了分析。  相似文献   

三个进入江西的台风路径和暴雨形成机制对比分析     

尹洁  金米娜  冯开明  陈建萍 《气象与减灾研究》2007,30(2):18-22

2006年7月14日—8月11日,“碧利斯”、“格美”、“桑美”3个台风先后进入江西,均产生了较强的区域性暴雨或大暴雨。利用常规资料和T213资料,对这3个台风的移动路径和暴雨形成机制进行了对比分析。分析结果表明,台风登陆后,由于副高形态和演变的不同,使得各台风路径变化不同。由于“碧利斯”登陆后与强西南季风结合,造成“碧利斯”暴雨的水汽、动力、热力条件均强于“格美”和“桑美”,从而使“碧利斯”暴雨的强度和范围明显强于“格美”和“桑美”。  相似文献